Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,713,540$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,165,455.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,165,455.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $155,402$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,873.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 57.4)}}\) (asimptote \(139,873.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,044,692$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $443,813$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{583,588.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 113.9)}}\) (asimptote \(583,588.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $48,012$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,910.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 94.6)}}\) (asimptote \(54,910.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,359$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,456$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,728.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(130,728.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,497$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(43.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,685.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 305.9)}}\) (asimptote \(80,685.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,866$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,973$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.55 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,015.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(111,015.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,995$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,811.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,811.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,694$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,794$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(649 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,151.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 115.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,151.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,384$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(27.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,129.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 172.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,129.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,556$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,542$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(537 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,830.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(79,830.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,013$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(33.1 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,449.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 100.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,449.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,183$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,117$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320,323.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 187.3)}}\) (asimptote \(320,323.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,183$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,693.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 110.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,693.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,110$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,843$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(267 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,625.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,625.3\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $477$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(6.25 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{746.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 115.3)}}\) (asimptote \(746.3\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,557$ on 2020-08-03
